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Modeling the combined terrorist-narcotics trafficker threat to national security, Alexander Woodcock and Samuel Musa

eng

Includes bibliographical references (page 47)

federal national government publication

illustrations

no index present

non fiction

Modeling the combined terrorist-narcotics trafficker threat to national security

bibliographydictionaries

Alexander Woodcock and Samuel Musa

Defense & technology papers, no. 93

The relationship between terrorism, drug trafficking, and policymaking is examined through the development, implementation, and use of a series of systems dynamics-based models. These activities are intended to provide the basis for future development of a decision aid to support policymakers in combating the narco-terror threat. The models developed for this purpose are: a narcotics, counter-narcotics, and trafficker double agent model; a policy cycle model to manage the trafficker double agent conversion policies; a prototype societal deprivation, affection, disaffection, and advanced terrorist recruitment, training, and narco-terrorist support model; entity security and terrorist activity models; a violence generation model; and policy cycle models to represent the management of social violence and entity security policies. These models illustrate the relationships between deprivation of key resources to individuals and disaffection and ultimate terrorist activity; attack of notional targets by teams of terrorists; deprivation of individuals leading to violence, which can lead to an increase in the level of perceived deprivation; dynamics of policymaking in response to perceived needs; and the impact of corruption on policymaking

Introduction -- Model-based analyses of counter-narcotics activities -- Policy cycle models can represent the management of societal violence levels and entity security policies -- Summary, discussion, and a way forward